Frogs, Drones and Weddings – Kateryna Ziborova

Coming from a war zone near you, and it’s getting closer. Is the West sleep-walking into war like Ukraine did?

Europe is on low boil?

Kyiv – 20th September 2025

 

 

Here in Ukraine during our 4th year of defence against the hostile russian invasion I detect no fundamental changes in the general population on the ground, nor can there be any. The people want victory, and no concessions are possible, given the number of casualties and destruction we have had to endure so far, and our soldiers are in no way ready to give up or surrender. In many ways they are as motivated now as much as they ever were.  The only pebble in the river is that the incessant, sneaky, covert moskovian infiltration of our lives which has created more naive collaborators and those who are “tired of war” and with whom muscovite propaganda is actively working, financing and supporting. This is the well documented ex-soviet play-book. Why many countries just don’t just bring it out into the open with as much publicity as they can is a mystery? The same in your country I guess?

 

 

The most important strategic topic is the complete change in the techniques and rules of war which Ukraine is now leading the world. This is already the war of the future, completely different from what it was like even two years ago. This is already a reality, and talking about it is not only timely, but already probably too late?

Recently at home though the regular morning news in Ukraine has changed and now brings yet another wartime experience.

 

Could it be another attack of ballistic missiles and drones?  It could of course but no. I did notice the wreckage of a downed Shahed drone smoking quietly on the lawn in front of the house next door a couple of days ago. The shop nearby where I bought my child’s nappies and shampoo was blown apart recently along with a humanitarian aid warehouse nearby and on the other side was a tiny shop selling children’s tights and socks. These are clearly targeted because of their extraordinary strategic military value – but we’re getting used to this.

Could it be be Donald Trump making another broadcast of consciousness again? Well, the cuckoo’s nest has long been empty in that area, and we’ve heard it all before anyway, so no.

This time we have a new change.  Putin’s drones have flown over the territory of another European country!!

NATO even scrambled their jets. They expressed their concern. Deep concern. It happened yesterday too. And the day before yesterday. And now another European country. And the concern and hand wringing is as deep as ever. Oh dear, perhaps someone should write a letter? (sorry, but dry humour just shows our frustration and it’s all we have).

 

 

 

 

It’s been a long time since I’ve seen such bold statements coming from our western neighbours, but they are welcome nevertheless and I can detect the frustration felt by our friends who have a distinct eye on the history of these types of events and where they inevitably always end up.

You know that if you throw a frog into a pot of boiling water, it will jump out? But if you put it in cold water, place the pot on the stove, and slowly heat it, the frog will do nothing until it is totally boiled.

Enemy drones are already violating European airspace. Military exercises are taking place right on Europe’s borders. Enemy ships are circling and targeting the underwater cables that provide 90% of business and strategic communications in European countries. It seems the frog is already in the pot; the water is heating up, but the frog is not jumping out.

 

 

 

 

Reading the morning news in Ukraine and around the world, I am experiencing a really strong déjà vu which makes me feel both sad and angry all at once, because this scenario has already happened before and it has happened to us. Why can’t anyone else see it?

It happened to us just like this:

from 2012 Moscow reported that there were pro russian celebrations in the Ukrainian Donbas region, and in Ukrainian Crimea they were suddenly saying they “had always been russian“.   At the same time, very believable and “polite” people quietly crept into our territories and began to organise the more naive and easily manipulated amongst us to become passionate about dissent and rile against misrepresented truths which they had been fed but couldn’t be bothered to check. They were even stirring up protests about issues outside our country or sphere of influence as a means of diversion from what was actually happening here at home. Agents or “fellow travellers” slowly infiltrated government, parliament, universities and trade unions with voices talking about a common russian past and redefining basic historical facts. Internet and on-line problems began to become more frequent.    As for the frog, the water slowly heated up…

European countries are already feeling the water getting warmer. They hope it’s not yet boiling, but I have to tell you that unfortunately it already is.

 

 

 

We see russian reconnaissance ships and submarines mapping the seabeds off the coasts of Europe, Scandinavia and Britain in the specific areas of underwater internet connections, energy pipelines and military communication cables. The frog’s strong hind leg already feels the heat but does not tense its muscles to leap out.

Drones appear over the Bundeswehr (German Army) training grounds. The German Interior Ministry calls for the threat not to be underestimated. The frog’s other strong leg begins to warm up but does nothing.

Meanwhile, Europeans are distracted by agents and their own ‘useful idiots’ egging on internal conflict, and the protests then surge, clearly identified as being instigated and financially supported by you know who. Like a magician, card dealer or pick-pocket – diversion is the key. Keep the frogs focused on other things while the temperature in the pot rises inexorably.

 

 

 

 

 

Viktor Orbán (Hungary) and Robert Fico (Slovakia) say they will not refuse oil supplies through the Druzhba pipeline (the 4000km pipe which delivers fuel direct from russia). This is like the middle finger on the frog’s left front paw, the one that also helps toss wood into the fire. In a nod to Churchill’s famous line, “this finger hopes to be eaten last“.

Southern Europe now protests against increased defence spending because they don’t have enough for social welfare. The frog is slurping warm water, now both outside and inside.

 

 

All these slow, deconstructive actions divert attention and resources. Meanwhile, the situation escalates quietly: military movements, drone incursions, and political distractions pile up, unnoticed with little obvious reaction from the masses. Keep quiet and it might go away?  But, the heat keeps rising, and the frog remains passive, lulled by the illusion that nothing drastic is happening.

Oh, damn it!  We’ve been here before! We were here twelve years ago, in 2013 — almost the same questions, and though everything was harsher back then, we still didn’t quite believe it. Most people didn’t believe it the day before it did!

Reading the morning news now, it all feels painfully familiar. But the bubbles are rising, and it’s getting harder to pretend the water is still warm, not hot.

 

Meanwhile, what makes mornings in this part of the world a little more bearable? News that something has gone boom in moskovia — an oil refinery, a weapons plant, or another depot that suddenly caught fire. A small FPV drone flew beautifully into a moskal tank. The heavy Vampire drone — the one they fearfully call Baba Yaga (yes, the same one from the John Wick books) — once again erased another piece of their military infrastructure.

 

 

 

 

They say “invention is the mother of necessity” and since our early struggles in 2014 Ukraine has become a world leader in modern warfare. Like Britain in 1940, when their back was against the wall there was no option but to go for broke and try anything. When our guys first started revolutionising military science by using drones to spy on the enemy they quickly realised that they could also drop explosives on them.  Initially their Heath Robinson type of constructions were made in back sheds by “tech” enthusiasts and mostly used Chinese Mavic 3 drones, which were pretty easy to order and our people collected donations for these cheap civilian toys. It certainly proved more productive that filling empty bottles with petrol and a rag.

 

Mavic3 Civilian Drone advert

 

At the beginning our soldiers were already saying that drones were the future of warfare but our Minister of Defence at that time blurted out on air one day that only artillery and infantry were useful and that unmanned warfare is child’s play. He referred to the Mavic 3  as a ‘wedding drone’ since they were often used to film weddings. He couldn’t be more out of touch and was eventually removed but our troops on the ground with their black humour, still use the term ‘wedding drones’ to describe this “until death do us part”, which is now the most prevalent and expanding form of defence on air, land and sea – and our guys are good at it.

 

Early version offensive drone which proved surprisingly effective

 

These were simple drones of the type our guys fixed hand grenades to in the early days of the invasion.  Such news reminds us that not all frogs just sit in hot water. Some learn to swim — and together, they’re the ones currently turning up the heat on the aggressor.

Whilst the development of drone technology advances daily, bear in mind that with all new inventions, those nations with a more dynamic mindset and especially if they have huge resources behind them can advance even quicker. As an example, in Chongquing, China, 11,787 drones lit up the sky for a spectacular light show just 3 months ago in June this year – a world record.

Just imagine a desperate country swamping a town or city like this – no current air defence could be effective – and the technology and manufacturing capability is already here. We regularly get 600 drones in one night. Imagine your country if 10,000 armed drones appeared over your capital city?

       

 

But back to your frog.

There is clearly a stirring, and behind the scenes things are happening, but it is a race and history shows us that we have been here before several times and no amount of wishing we weren’t will change things.

Assassinations, attacks on infrastructure, power, airports or communications, interference with government or airspace has clearly not stirred the frog out of the pot quite yet.

It is unlikely that there will be a major trigger outrage in the capitals of Europe, if there hasn’t been enough already, just a continuous slow increase in disruptive easily deniable events and the sowing of discontent in the populations.

As time passes the respective governments are going to have more and more difficulties unifying their populations into action especially when a huge number are already under the influence whether they know this or not.

 

 

 

I send my best wishes to you all and hope your frog knows that it’s time to jump?

 

Kateryna.

Kyiv, Ukraine

20th September 2025

 

 

Note:  Kateryna Ziborova is a Ukrainian writer who lives in Kyiv with her young daughter. She is a regular contributor to the AFHG/GPFA and this is her 4th Letter from Kyiv. Members of her immediate family have been fighting on the front line since the invasion began back in February 2022 and we ensure that her privacy and security are strictly maintained in this letter.  It is difficult to imagine the stress over the last 3 years and 8 months, that she, her daughter and family, and people like her in this beautiful democratic European country are experiencing, with the continuous threats of attacks, restricted facilities, blackouts and bombings. She is a very courageous young lady and her continued spirit reflects that of most Ukrainians.